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Investment Monthly – August 2022

Recession Risks Rising
03 August 2022
    Download the full reportPDF, 4.76MB

    Key takeaways:

    • The combination of higher-than-expected inflation and policy hikes remain significant challenges to market performance
    • We think a cautious asset allocation makes sense at this point given the emergence of downside earnings potential relative to current expectations amid meaningful recession risks, with value/cyclical equity performance likely to enter a more difficult phase. Longer-duration US Treasuries may outperform if recession risk crystallises
    • However, an overly bearish view is not justified given the strong US macro starting point, significantly improved valuations, the prospect of cooling inflation later in 2022, and China reopening/policy support. This may be an attractive entry point for growth equites following the recent selloff and the likelihood we are at “peak Fed hawkishness”